Learning Resilience in the Age of Turbulence
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London, Not Central Asia the Real Terrorist Threat

From Foreign Policy’s Reality Check,

Last month, an official told the Daily Telegraph that their country “has the greatest concentration of active al Qaeda supporters [in the West],” posing a threat to Britain and “the rest of the world.” The same article cited a fresh and ominous finding from the director of MI5. He estimated his service was aware of some 2,000 “radicalized Muslims” who might be involved in terrorist plots. That figure, of course, doesn’t include the population of plotters who have escaped MI5 scrutiny, like Abdulmutallab. As if to underline the threat, on Jan. 12, the British government banned two of the country’s most notorious Islamist organizations, Islam4UK and Al Muhajiroun, under a 2000 anti-terrorism law.

This goes back to my previous argument on why “preventing Al-Qaeda safe havens in Afghanistan” is a myopic strategy considering the nature of the opponent.  Al-Qaeda is a GLOBAL terrorist organization with members scattered all over the world. I question the notion that keeping them out of one country or two (Yemen) will significantly hamper their operations.

We rarely hear our leaders discussing ways to bolster our relations with Muslims living in Western nations, yet this may be a far greater use of our time and money if we consider the above statements.  I suspect the reason it doesn’t get as much chatter on the airwaves is because it goes against the existing paradigms we have concerning warfare.  Simply put, few people in the American National Security apparatus feel confident operating in this “soft power” territory.

In “The Accidental Guerrilla” David Kilcullen asks the questions that come when reevaluating about these paradigms,

How, for example, do we wage war on nonstate actors who hide in states with which we are at peace, even within our own society?  How do we work with allies whose territory provides safe haven for non-state opponents?  How do we defeat enemies who exploit the tools of globalization and open societies, without destroying the very things we seek to protect?

Christian Caryl of the Foreign Policy article shows the real-life issues that arise as we attempt to answer these questions,

In the 1990s, policymakers desperate to address the concerns of the nation’s Muslims decided to foster the creation of Islamic umbrella groups. They also unwittingly fostered radical ones. For instance, Abdulmutallab invited extremists to speak to his college student group — but doesn’t seem to have done anything in London in contravention of British law. And he is not the only vivid illustration of how the institutions of democracy can dangerously blend with the institutions of jihadism.

Forays into the fight against radicalization in Western countries is a muddy affair at best, but its something that we’d better start figuring out soon. After all, I doubt the people of London would take to kindly to a strategy that involved firing missiles on their city from unmanned drones.

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Related posts:

  1. Why the Safe Haven Argument for Afghanistan is Weak
  2. Matthew Hoh’s Letter of Resignation Regarding Afghanistan
  3. The Ultimate AfPak Reading List
  4. David Foster Wallace on the Freedom vs. Security Discussion America Isn’t Having

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6 comments

1 Isao { 02.05.10 at 5:42 am }

I often hear that authorities in London is constantly trying to enhance security which unfortunately causes limiting freedom and privacy. If in spite of those measures the security risk is increasing, then … their tactics are actually backfiring at them?

2 Collin { 02.05.10 at 10:36 am }

Cameron, Your last sentence really hit me:

“After all, I doubt the people of London would take to kindly to a strategy that involved firing missiles on their city from unmanned drones.”

For some reason that just really made clear to me how strange our war is becoming. I mean, we aren’t fighting against pakistan’s or Afghanistan’s governments, but we drop bombs on both of those nations all the time…We aren’t at war with Britain, but maybe we should drop precision bombs when we’ve got intel on a radical in a building…wow, scary. I think you’re on to something.

3 Cameron Schaefer { 02.05.10 at 11:05 pm }

@ Isao,

There is definitely a risk that in implementing measures to prevent terrorism we may be inadvertently destroying the institutions of freedom that make our society worthwhile.

See here: http://www.schaefersblog.com/david-foster-wallace-on-the-freedom-vs-security-discussion-america-isnt-having/

@ Collin,

Yeah, I hoped that someone would see why I threw that last line in there. It’s funny how things that would once be considered quite outrageous like bombing sovereign countries that we’re not at war with has very quickly become no big deal.

I understand why commander’s love UAV’s, but I think there are still some big philosophical questions regarding their use that we haven’t even begun to debate at the national level.

Just because we can doesn’t mean we should…I think that may have to be a blog post for another day.

Thanks for being such a loyal commenter!

4 Fred Balt { 02.16.10 at 10:40 pm }

Hi Cameron,
Your picture of London is very true. Just walk in the centre of London and you’ll notice that it has become a real conglomerate of different cultures and religions. Warnings about Islamic extremists in the past fell on deaf ears. The western countries are really soft (for the sake of political correctness) when it comes to protecting their own territories. England is a very good example of a country which could protect itself very efficiently but they chose to be “open ” for all. A real wake up call is neccesary before it is almost too late. No country can effectively fight a terrorist war within its own borders. The aim of Islamic organisations is to infiltrate friendly western countries while it is quite difficult to infiltrate their countries.
I couldn’t agree more that the wars in Afghanistan etc. is fruitless if the internal policies of western countries protect these terrorists within the borders of these western countries.
Anyway I also agree that your blog can be very serious at times (although I always enjoy it!)
Please sharpen your cooking skills because by the time you come to visit us here in the RSA we would really enjoy it to be treated on some of your delicious dishes!
Regards top Marlize, Malone and Judah!

5 Cameron Schaefer { 02.18.10 at 12:47 am }

@ Fred,

So great to hear from you! You definitely hit on many of the challenges facing not just London, but Western countries, as you say, in general. There is such a fine line between being an open country and completely losing your cultural identity. The challenge is for us to figure out how to walk it better.

I’ll definitely keep working on the cooking skills and also on getting a trip set up to come visit you guys!

Thanks again for the shout and keeping in touch, will give your greetings to the Schaefer tribe.

6 Fred Balt { 02.18.10 at 12:11 pm }

Hi Cameron,
Thanks for your reply. Isincerely hope that your planned (or dreamed about!) visit will become a reality. we are already looking forward to it and just kow that you will enjoy the RSA!
Excuse me for being ignorent but I don’t know how to link an interesting e-mail that I have received today to your blog. I’m therefore taking the liberty to send it to Marlize’s e-mail address. Please ask her to forgive me! It links up perfectly with the subject of your “London the real Terro threat” Maybe you have seen it before but it surely shows what is going on in England and Europe today.
Regards to you all!
Fred Balt

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