Learning Resilience in the Age of Turbulence

I know I’ve been quoting a lot of Niebuhr lately, but I just can’t get over how much meat is packed into the pages of “The Irony of American History.”

I just finished the book and sat in quiet awe reflecting the final two paragraphs.  Niebuhr is speaking of the enemy of communism, but the enemy of radical Islam could just as easily be inserted.

There is, in short, even in a conflict with a foe with whom we have little in common the possibility and necessity of living in a dimension of meaning in which the urgencies of the struggle are subordinated to a sense of awe before the vastness of the historical drama in which we are jointly involved; to a sense of modesty about the virtue, wisdom and power available to us for the resolution of its perplexities; to a sense of contrition about the common human frailties and foibles which lie at the foundation of both the enemy’s demonry and our vanities; and to a sense of gratitude for the divine mercies which are promised to those who humble themselves.

Strangely enough, none of the insights derived from this faith are finally contradictory to our purpose and duty of preserving our civilization.  They are, in fact, prerequisites for saving it.  For if we should perish, the ruthlessness of the foe would be only the secondary cause of the disaster.  The primary cause would be that the strength of a giant nation was directed by eyes too blind to see all the hazards of the struggle; and the blindness would be induced not by some accident of nature or history but by hatred and vainglory.

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Many heated political and philosophical debates, often overheard amongst the noise, music and smoke of the local pub or coffee shop have at their core an unnamed or unrecognized root conflict between the ideals of “individualism” and “collectivism.”

Simply put, should man pursue his self-interests or those of the community?  Liberals tend to assume that “enlightened” individuals find no difference between the two.  Many would argue that it is in your best interest to pursue goals of a wider community.

Conservatives and libertarians tend to fall more on the side of pursuing individual ambition with the idea being that should everyone in society pursue their own self-interest it will magically combine to produce a collective harmony…a rising tide of wealth spring forth.

In, “The Irony of American History” Reinhold Niebuhr explores this question in some depth noting the tension and angst of attempting the dangerous, but delightful work of being an individual in a community.   He says,

The concept of “the value and dignity of the individual” of which our modern culture has made so much is finally meaningful only in a religious dimension.  It is constantly threatened by the same culture which wants to guarantee it.  It is threatened whenever it is assumed that individual desires, hopes and ideals can be fitted with frictionless harmony into the collective purposes of man.  The individual is not discrete.  He cannot find his fulfillment outside of the community; but he also cannot find fulfillment completely within society.  In so far as he finds fulfillment within society he must abate his individual ambitions.  He must “die to self” if he would truly live. In so far as he finds fulfillment beyond every historic community he lives his life in painful tension with even the best community, sometimes achieving standards of conduct with a resolute, “we must obey God rather than man.”  Sometimes he is involved vicariously in the guilt of the community he would fain live a life of innocency.  He will possibly man a bombing plane and suffer the conscience pricks of the damned that the community might survive.

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First, the books:

1) “Freedom” by Daniel Suarez

An awesome follow-up to Suarez’s first novel, “Daemon,” a high-tech thriller that turned the heads of national security experts, technologists and futurists alike.  The sequel focuses on the role of resilient communities in building a different future for those who detest the decreasing self-sufficiency (therefore freedom) of the common citizen and community.

Both “Daemon” and “Freedom” plus Robb’s “Brave New War” and Pollan’s “Omnivore’s Dilemma” provide a great blue print for those wanting to see the near-future of conflict for power and resources and operational space.  (h/t @TimothyThompson)

2) “The Collapse of Complex Societies” by Joseph Tainter

Two chapters into the book that ZenPundit says is the “academic to mainstream crossover book of 2010.”  More to come…

3) “The Irony of American History” by Reinhold Niebuhr

I’ve heard Andrew Bacevich sing the praises of Niebuhr for long enough now that I had to consume some of his writing for myself.  Thus far I have been blown away by his C.S. Lewis-like style and depth.

Writing during the postwar years, Niebuhr, the scholar, theologian and prophet honed in on “…the persistent sin of American Exceptionalism; the indecipherability of history; the false allure of simple solutions; and, finally, the imperative of appreciating the limits of power.”

4) “Cloud Atlas” by David Mitchell

Have heard about this book for a while, shortlisted for the 2004 Booker Prize and other awards, excited to read a contemporary novelist who has been compared to David Foster Wallace.

5) “For the Win” by Cory Doctrow

Lots of hype from TwitterNation, will crack open once I finish the above.

And posts and articles…

1) “The Sun in the Sky: The Relationship Between Pakistan’s ISI and Afghan Insurgents” by Matt Waldman

2) “Who is Ayn Rand?” by Charles Murray (h/t Isegoria)

3) “West Point Faculty Member Worries it is Failing to Prepare Tomorrow’s Officers” by Maj. Fernando Lujan, U.S. Army

4) The Cheap Vegetable Gardener (h/t Shloky)

5) “The Scientific Scandal of Antismoking” by J.R. Johnstone, PhD and P.D. Finch, Emeritus Professor of Mathematical Studies (h/t Isegoria)

6) David MacKay’s Without The Hot Air (h/t Carl Rigney)

Oh yeah…and about those $1 trillion of minerals underneath the mine-laden dirt of Afghanistan, I’ll put money on China getting way more contracts than the U.S.  Why?  They care more about business than changing governments.  The only question they’ll have for Karzai regarding his corrupt brother in the South is, “yuan or dollars?”

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Guys, when you start thinking you’re tough stuff, watch this video…stomach-churning example of mental toughness and self-control.

Steph Davis: So In Control from Prana Living on Vimeo.

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From Andrew Bacevich’s introduction to “The Irony of American History“, by pastor, teacher, theologian and author Reinhold Niebuhr which I started reading yesterday.  Niebuhr writes the following concerning preventive war,

“The idea of preventive war sometimes tempts minds, whose primary preoccupation is the military defense of a nation and who thinks it might be prudent to pick the most propitious moment for the start of what they regard as inevitable hostilities.  But the rest of us must resist such ideas with every moral resource.”

“Nothing in history is inevitable including the probable.  So long as war has not broken out, we still have the possibility of avoiding it.  Those who think that there is little difference between a cold and a hot war are either knaves or fools.”

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Daniel Pink, author of, “A Whole New Mind: Why Right-Brainers Will Rule the Future” and his latest, “Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us” explains why the majority of what we know about motivation is wrong.

Citing many recent studies, Pink shows that traditional carrot-and-stick approaches to management, such as pay bonuses for good work, only apply jobs that are purely mechanical.  For jobs that require even a small amount of rudimentary cognitive skill, pay incentives actually led to worse performance.

In the following video, RSA (The Royal Society for the encouragement of Arts, Manufacturing and Commerce…whew) animates Pink’s ideas in real-time as he talks.  If it seems distracting at first, just give it a minute, the animation helps us visual learners digest Pink’s ideas and ends up adding some insight.

(definitely worth 10min of your time.)

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Wondering what you should serve to guests this summer when you’re sitting on the patio discussing the latest episode of Mad Men?  Try Kalimotxo, a popular drink from Spain made with equal parts cheap red wine and coke served in a highball (bar-speak for large glass) with lots of ice.

I was introduced to this drink last week by my next door neighbor who spent a summer in Spain and assured me that despite the odd sounding pairing I would thoroughly enjoy it…game, set, match Thomas the neighbor.

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This Naval Academy Professor thinks so,

With the rise after World War II of the Reserve Officer Training Corps programs at universities around the country, the academies now produce 20 percent or less of the officers in each service, at an average cost to taxpayers of nearly half a million dollars per student, more than four times what an R.O.T.C.-trained officer costs.

The institutions are set on doing things their own way, yet I know of nobody in the Navy or other services who would argue that graduates of Annapolis or West Point are, as a group, better than those who become officers through other programs. A student can go to a civilian school like Vanderbilt, major in art history (which we don’t offer), have the usual college social experience and nightlife (which we forbid), be commissioned through R.O.T.C. — and apparently be just as good an officer as a Naval Academy product.

Instead of better officers, the academies produce burned-out midshipmen and cadets. They come to us thinking they’ve entered a military Camelot, and find a maze of petty rules with no visible future application. These rules are applied inconsistently by the administration, and tend to change when a new superintendent is appointed every few years. The students quickly see through assurances that “people die if you do X” (like, “leave mold on your shower curtain,” a favorite claim of one recent administrator). We’re a military Disneyland, beloved by tourists but disillusioning to the young people who came hoping to make a difference.

Read the full Op-Ed here.

As a graduate of a service Academy I sympathize with the professor, it seems that not only do service academies produce burnt-out cadets, but often professors as well.

However, the problems he describes are not new ones, they’ve been happening at all the institutions for years now and debated thoroughly among cadets, midshipmen and faculty.

In fact, I’ve often wondered if many of these issues haven’t always existed in some form, inherent in the design of the system itself, but soon forgotten by former grads who are quick to assure you that “things were different when I went through…back when it was hard.”

In a somewhat paradoxical twist, elite academic institutions by their nature are often prone to the very thing they preach so adamantly against – mediocrity.

Here’s William Deresiewicz, a former Yale professor writing in 2008,

In short, the way students are treated in college trains them for the social position they will occupy once they get out.  At schools like Cleveland State, they’re being trained for positions somewhere in the middle of the class system, in the depths of one bureaucracy or another.  They’re being conditioned for lives with few second chances, no extensions, little support, narrow opportunity—lives of subordination, supervision, and control, lives of deadlines, not guidelines.  At places like Yale, of course, it’s the reverse.  The elite like to think of themselves as belonging to a meritocracy, but that’s true only up to a point. Getting through the gate is very difficult, but once you’re in, there’s almost nothing you can do to get kicked out.  Not the most abject academic failure, not the most heinous act of plagiarism, not even threatening a fellow student with bodily harm—I’ve heard of all three—will get you expelled.  The feeling is that, by gosh, it just wouldn’t be fair—in other words, the self-protectiveness of the old-boy network, even if it now includes girls.  Elite schools nurture excellence, but they also nurture what a former Yale graduate student I know calls “entitled mediocrity.”  A is the mark of excellence; A- is the mark of entitled mediocrity.  It’s another one of those metaphors, not so much a grade as a promise.  It means, don’t worry, we’ll take care of you.  You may not be all that good, but you’re good enough.

Now, there are plenty of differences between Yale and the Naval Academy, but I draw the parallel simply to point out that the “march toward mediocrity” is not  something unique to the service academies.

Where people are likely to get agitated is that, unlike other schools, the taxpayer is paying for the education of cadets and midshipmen.  Like any good stockholder they should always be asking, “where’s the value?”  Why spend half a million per cadet if they’re no better at the end of it then an ROTC or OTS grad?

At this point I’m not sure that I have much of an answer.  I’m glad that I went to USAFA for many reasons and certainly feel that I received a top-notch education, however can I say that I’m better than I would have been had I gone a different route?  Who knows the answers to questions like that?  Not me.

So my friends, many of you reading this were classmates of mine at USAFA, what do you think? Did going to the Academy make you a better officer than if you had gone to a school like Vanderbilt?

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There’s no doubt that globalization has its benefits, but we often ignore the fact that it has also exponentially increased the complexity of the world markets and has eliminated many of the redundancies (economists call these “inefficiencies”) and robustness that once made it so individual markets could withstand failures in other parts of the world.  Complex systems are very fragile.

See Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Ten Principles for a Black-Swan Proof World

Here are a couple of my favorites:

1.  What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become too big to fail.  Evolution in economic life helps those with the maximum amount of hidden risks – and hence the most fragile – become the biggest.

8.  Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains. Using leverage to cure the problems of too much leverage is not homeopathy, it is denial.  The debt crisis is not a temporary problem, it is a structural one.  We need rehab.

9.  Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement.   Economic life should be definancialised.  We should learn not to use markets as storehouses of value: they do not harbour the certainties that normal citizens require.  Citizens should experience anxiety about their own businesses (which they control), not their investments (which they do not control).

For more Taleb see here.  (h/t John Robb)

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“We need more generalists. Generalists outperform specialists in many tasks.” – Malcolm Gladwell

“Polymaths possess something that monomaths do not.  Time and again, innovations come from a fresh eye or from another discipline.  Most scientists devote their careers to solving the everyday problems in their specialism.  Everyone knows what they are and it takes ingenuity and perseverance to crack them.  But breakthroughs—the sort of idea that opens up whole sets of new problems—often come from other fields.  The work in the early 20th century that showed how nerves work and, later, how DNA is structured originally came from a marriage of physics and biology.” – Edward Carr, “The Last Days of the Polymath”

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