What I’m Reading (12.17.09)
Management brainiac Tom Peters gives us his bare bones guide to success:
“So here are ‘the real basics’—in five words. Achieve Excellence at these five things and the world (of human organizations) will pretty much be your oyster. ”
1. Read. (Outstudy ‘em.)
2. Write. (Clear, concise, powerful.)
3. Talk. (Presentation mastery. Study. Practice-practice-practice. Storytelling, mastery of.)
4. Listen. (Study. Practice-practice-practice. Understand enormous power thereof.)
5. Appreciate. (Engaged. Thoughtful. Compassionate. Appreciative always, enormous power thereof.)
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The brilliant military theorist and father of Fourth Generation Warfare (4GW), William Lind, recently posted the last of his 326-part series entitled, “On War.” I always listen to what he has to say because so much of what he has predicted has come to pass. Here are some of his final thoughts on war, the US military and the future.
“In particular, the theory’s definition of Fourth Generation war has proven prophetic. Since 1989, the world has witnessed a progressive weakening of the state and rise of alternative, non-state primary loyalties, for which a growing number of men are willing to fight. That is the heart of my definition of Fourth Generation war. As Martin van Creveld says, what changes is not how war is fought, but who fights and what they fight for.”
“The second point I would close with is that the U.S. military doesn’t get it. Some European militaries do get it. Many Fourth Generation entities (not all) not only get it, they are writing the book. But the U.S. military is largely an intellectual void. Its two implied (and related) theories, that wars are decided by comparative levels of technology and by who can put the most firepower on targets, have both been proven false. Were they true, we would have won the Iraq and Afghan wars quickly. In fact, the Pentagon was so blinded by its false theories it thought we had won them quickly. Sorry, guys.
While many junior and field grade officers in the U. S. military have found value in the Four Generations framework (which says that American armed forces are not one, but two generations behind), the brass studiously ignores it. ‘Not invented here’ is part of the problem, but the larger part is that our major headquarters think little if at all about war. What they think about is money. 4GW does little to justify bigger budgets. On the contrary, it suggests that most ‘big ticket’ weapons programs are irrelevant to where war is going. That is not what the brass, or the defense companies they plan to work for after retirement, want to hear.
What might change that picture? Nothing will change in DOD until the money simply isn’t there anymore. The news, which is simultaneously good and bad, is that the money soon won’t be there. Like every previous imperial power, we are bankrupting ourselves. A trillion dollars here and a trillion dollars there, and soon it adds up to real money. The twin financing mechanisms of piling up debt and debasing the currency can only go on so long. We can already see the night at the end of the tunnel.”
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3 comments
Hey Cameron,
I understand the talk about 4th generation war being the new big thing and all. There is no denying the fact that technology and global interconnectedness have resulted in idealogical movements and non-state actors possessing unprecedented power. And certainly our military was not and probably still isn’t well prepared to deal with such threats, but…Isn’t it a little premature to say that big wars are over? In fact, sometime between now and when this world ends (and who knows when that might be) don’t you and I have reason to believe there’s going to be warfare between nations on a scale never seen before?
I think this 4th generation business is definitely here to stay, but why rule out, and in doing so, fail to prepare for, the thing that has been a constant throughout all history–Big State-on-State War.
As for our economy…”a trillion here, a trillion there and soon it adds up to real money.” haha, that’s great!
Hope you and the family are well!
@ Colin,
Great points my friend, I had to just do some push-ups so I could get the blood flowing in the brain and try to respond intelligently.
” but…Isn’t it a little premature to say that big wars are over?”
I don’t think it is and here’s why. First, no two countries both possessing nuclear weapons have gone to war against each other. The Cold War was a war in some respects, but not that kind that saw active military engagements, “Red Dawn” moments, etc. hence it’s name “Cold.” The main reason being that we haven’t figured out how to employ them with out blowing up the world. What’s the point of going to war if each side hits the kill switch and no one survives?
Any type of state-vs-state warfare would most likely be among very small, non-nuclear countries and would probably be fought via proxy forces like Hezbollah, who would guess what, use 4GW strategies and techniques.
Second, we are so financially connected now to the rest of the world that we’ve lost a lot of the incentive of waging war against other nations. Let’s look at China and Iran, the two biggest threats that the military likes to point to in order to justify various expenditures and strategies.
We won’t go to war with China first because they own $800 billion of U.S. Treasury Securities, the most of any foreign country. You lose a lot of bargaining power when the person you’re trying to leverage is your biggest shareholder. War with China would absolutely devastate both of our economies, a huge lose-lose.
Second, if we go to war with Iran they’ll mine the Strait of Hermuz in a heartbeat. The oil flowing through the Strait accounts for %40 of all world traded oil. Since America’s entire economy is based on consuming cheap oil and Iran’s entire economy is based on selling it, again this would be huge lose-lose that I don’t see taking place.
Much more to talk about as to why state-vs-state warfare is dying, but I’ll stop for now.
“I think this 4th generation business is definitely here to stay, but why rule out, and in doing so, fail to prepare for, the thing that has been a constant throughout all history–Big State-on-State War.”
I would argue that by transforming the US military into a 4GW force we would be better prepared, not less prepared for state-on-state war. Think of your question in the context of history, each new generation of warfare dominates the last and those previous. 2GW dominated 1GW, 3GW blitzkrieged its way through 2GW forces, etc.
While I applaud our current militaries success in weakening Al-Qaeda I’m not sure I would call it a victory just yet. They spent $500,000 on 9/11 and we’ve currently spent just under $1 trillion on Iraq and Afghanistan combined. That’s a GIGANTIC assymetry of cost that is seldom mentioned and it doesn’t even include the damage done to global financial markets.
The reason the Al-Qaeda and elements of the Taliban have been so effective at foiling all of our grand ambitions in their backyards is that they choose 4GW to fight us instead of 2GW. I don’t believe becoming a 4GW force will make us any less lethal against large traditional powers, I think it will make us more effective.
Unfortunately I have to go fly now, but I hope this discussion will continue! Good times my friend!
Well said, Cameron. We do need to become more adept at fighting 4GWs. But not at the expense of preparing for traditional wars as well. Not all of our enemies are non-state actors. [Jon Butcher is here and read your blog. I'm flying T-1s, never thought i'd do that, but put it first! I'm enjoying and know this is where God wants me. I'm thinking about either U-28s or C-17s, have my first checkride on Monday. Hopefully i do well, so i can make choices, if not i'll end up where ever God wants me to be! have a great christmas!] I’m right with you–mutually assured destruction and financial interconnectedness have rendered big wars obsolete in the past 60 years. But we have seen a generally stable world since world war 2. It’s been a world filled with progress and growth. The United States has wielded enormous power and wealth, keeping order and balance on the global scene. Nothing has rocked the boat enough to warrant the breaking of the stablizing forces of MAD and economic interdependency. Yet. When all this ludicrous spending catches up to us and our economy crashes, and I mean really crashes, or when some other disaster such as nuclear terrorism or a global pandemic devastates the current state of things, desperation will lead to what it’s always lead to: big wars. Desperation makes people and government do irrational things.
4GW is a new field, and it is getting a lot of academic attention right now, as it should. But what is beyond it? State’s are not through. The one world McDonald’s Government isn’t quite here yet, in my opinion. The future will involve wars made incredibly complex due to the incorporation of 4GW tactics with the traditional use of force as well. MAD and Economic interdependency have been the story, but they won’t always be the story. Once again, men are going to find a reason to fight using everything they’ve got against each other.
Hope your flight went well!
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