Learning Resilience in the Age of Turbulence

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Even people who know nil about counterinsurgency are quick to speak of the illusive quest to “win the hearts and minds.” It has a beautiful simplicity to it…just show the locals how great we are and they’ll turn their backs on the enemy, game over. As usual though, reality has to spoil the party with its complexities and all.

It’s not that “winning the hearts and minds” of the locals is a poor goal, but we must manage our expectations of what it’s actually going to look like.

Warm embraces of gratitude with Afghan elders around a campfire of burning poppy plants with Lee Greenwood’s faint voice somewhere in the background is probably just not in the cards. We are foreign invaders no matter how you sugar-coat it.

If we’re to operate effectively on the moral level of war (arguably the most important in 4GW) we must have a realistic view of how we are seen by others. We may think our good intentions are quite obvious how dare anyone question them, but the Pashtun father who sees his toddler vaporized by an errant drone-fired missile probably has a decent rationale for challenging this notion.

Mr. Aaron J. Henninger is a lecturer on the topics of Public Affairs and Strategic Communication at the United States Air Force’s Air War College. He wrote the following mind grenade in the fantastic op-ed below. The full article can be found here.

Certain organizations have either a stigma or a perception that precludes them from carrying out specific tasks or actions. I charge that a fielded military force cannot successfully or with any degree of longevity, carry out military occupation and enact a successful public relations campaign. The messages go beyond being mixed and the long-term visuals are far too compelling than any press release or photo-op.

What if 9/11 conspirators were to have walked through NY during and after the attacks to attempt community relations? As horrific and absurd as this might sound, that is how we are perceived in some corners of the world, in the aftermath of airstrikes and destruction, attempting to persuade or engender good will.

Our efforts lack any and all sensitivity to the historical underpinnings of the West’s relationship with the Middle East. One photo-op cannot undo a thousand years grievance or mistrust. As a government we must understand and accept this reality.

What we would term as “good images”, are often times generated more for self-flagellation of the US population at large than the indigenous, effected population.

Messages of, ‘We are your friend, we are here to help you’ set against a backdrop of Humvees and .50 cal machine guns is disingenuous at best.

Check out more of Mr. Henninger’s outstanding work at his blog, on the DEFENSE.

For another post-9/11 mind grenade, see an earlier post on David Foster Wallace here.

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On Afghanistan, waterboarding and COIN:

1) A fascinating paragraph from Robert Kaplan’s latest article on Afghanistan in The Atlantic (h/t Andrew Sullivan):

The very prospect of some success by July 2011 increases the likelihood that U.S. forces will be in Afghanistan in substantial numbers for years. In effect, the proficiency of the American military causes it to be overextended. British Major General Richard Barrons, a veteran of the Balkans and Iraq now serving in Afghanistan, told me he learned during the most depressing days in Baghdad that “the long view is the primary weapon against fate.” If you are willing to stay, you can turn any situation around for the good. But that is an imperial mind-set, with its assumption of a near-permanent presence, which today’s Washington cannot abide, even as its own strategy drives toward that outcome.

2)  On Waterboarding: here and here (caution: disturbing)

3) Getting Close to the Afghans:

Our distance from the population, and the enemy’s proximity, encourage the people to alert the insurgents when our troops approach. They encourage the people to keep quiet about IEDs, which are now powerful enough to kill passengers in our best armored vehicles. Force protection measures thus result in less protection for our troops.

The risk aversion among American commanders has many sources. Fear of casualties and doubts about our purpose in Afghanistan cause segments of American society to pillory units that sustain large casualties, and to ignore units that cling to large bases and accomplish little. Talk of troop withdrawal dates discourages leaders from taking short-term risks for long-term gain.

Part of the blame lies within the military, which has often promoted risk-avoiders ahead of risk-takers, and has undervalued other attributes of vital importance in counterinsurgency such as creativity, sociability and empathy. The extent to which American units collaborate with Afghan security forces and obtain assistance from the population depends primarily on these attributes, and it varies widely.

On millenials, the economy and the coming anarchy (light reading, I know, sorry Linda):

1) The Dropout Economy a.k.a. when Millenials get tired of paying for the broken system created by the baby boomers and decide to opt-out. (h/t Shlok Vaidya)

Look at the projections of fiscal doom emanating from the federal government, and consider the possibility that things could prove both worse and better. Worse because the jobless recovery we all expect could be severe enough to starve the New Deal social programs on which we base our life plans. Better because the millennial generation could prove to be more resilient and creative than its predecessors, abandoning old, familiar and broken institutions in favor of new, strange and flourishing ones.

Imagine a future in which millions of families live off the grid, powering their homes and vehicles with dirt-cheap portable fuel cells. As industrial agriculture sputters under the strain of the spiraling costs of water, gasoline and fertilizer, networks of farmers using sophisticated techniques that combine cutting-edge green technologies with ancient Mayan know-how build an alternative food-distribution system. Faced with the burden of financing the decades-long retirement of aging boomers, many of the young embrace a new underground economy, a largely untaxed archipelago of communes, co-ops, and kibbutzim that passively resist the power of the granny state while building their own little utopias.

2) Britain ‘four meals away from anarchy’ (h/t John Robb)

…at least there’s always music, check out this sweet visualization - Rock ‘N Roll Metro Map

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As I’m reading my second Boyd biography, “The Mind or War: John Boyd and American Security” by Grant T. Hammond (my first was this),  I’m trying to absorb more of the things that made him an innovator and a leader.  It’s obvious that he was incredibly intelligent, motivated and creative, but there seemed to be an underlying outlook on life and his career that carried him through the times when things got rough, but one that also put him at odds with the status quo.

This section of the book singles out a large portion of his unique perspective on life, one that made him quite a controversial figure in the halls of the Pentagon:

Along the way, he set out to implement his personal credo — philosophic and strategic — in everything he did, every job he held, and every decision he could influence.  Simply stated, it was more important to do what was right than to be promoted…On active duty, Boyd delighted in finding the very best officers the Air Force had (Air Force Academy graduates, promoted below the zone two or three times and thus several years ahead of their contemporaries) and challenging them.  They were the epitome of company men, team players who wouldn’t rock the boat and who wanted desperately to become Chief of Staff of the Air Force.

One such example was Jim Burton, then a lieutenant colonel recommended to Boyd by a colleague because he was bright…Burton would go on to occupy a critical post in Test and Evaluation and to blow the whistle on rigged tests in the Army’s procurement of the new Bradley Fighting Vehicle.  He recalls the Boyd “To Be or To Do” speech as follows:

“Jim, you are at a point in your life where you have to make a choice about what kind of person you are going to be.  There are two career paths in front of you, and you have to choose which path you will follow.  One path leads to promotions, titles, and positions of distinction.  To achieve success down that path, you have to conduct yourself a certain way.  You must go along with the system and show that you are a better team player than your competitors.  The other path leads to doing things that are truly significant for the Air Force, but the rewards will quite often be a kick in the stomach because you may have to cross swords with the party line on occasion.  You can’t go down both paths, you have to choose.  So, do you want to be a man of distinction or do you want to do things that really influence the shape of the Air Force?  To be or to do, that is the question.”

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When high ranking officials seek to find out the “truth on the ground” they often discover the task much more difficult than expected.  It is usually not because the front-line personnel don’t know what is going on, but rather, few are willing to risk speaking candidly if they know the information will be viewed negatively by leadership.

This is unfortunate as it leaves leaders with a false sense of security.  “…but they said everything’s going great.”  It is something which goes on in many organizations, but the military rank system seems to exacerbate the issue.

There is an unnatural aura around the shiny pieces of medal on people’s shoulders that seem to act as a force-shield, blocking out reality and striking fear in subordinates.  Obviously not the intended effect (at least not most of the time), but one that exists nonetheless.

Tim Harford, author of The Undercover Economist recently wrote an article in the Financial Times admonishing us to “Listen to the Bearers of Bad News.”  Here’s a snippet:

One of Friedrich Hayek’s obvious-once-pointed-out observations is that society is full of local knowledge, often of a subtle nature and only fleetingly exploitable.  That is one reason why decentralised market processes tend to work well.  When a hierarchy has to exist, Hayek’s insight is the reason why bosses should want to receive truthful assessments of what is going on the shop floor (they don’t) and subordinates should be happy to provide them (they aren’t).

What makes matters worse for any organisation is that the same dynamic is taking place at every level.  Each middle manager is a fresh obstacle to the flow of truth up a hierarchy of wastebaskets.  Sensible managers try to let information flow freely, but many are happy to reinforce the barricades for their own peace of mind.

The results of barriers to communication can be catastrophic.  H.R. McMaster’s influential study of decision-making during the Vietnam war, Dereliction of Duty, is packed with examples.  The joint chiefs of staff were warned by their chairman, Maxwell Taylor, that Lyndon Johnson did not like “split advice”. Johnson’s defence secretary, Robert McNamara, argued that government would be ineffective if department chiefs were to “express disagreement” with the president.  Not disobey, but “express disagreement”.  Johnson trusted McNamara implicitly and relied too heavily on the advice of a man he praised as a “can-do fellow”.   Isolating himself from dissent, the president made a series of disastrous decisions.

The new television series, Undercover Boss, has made a name for itself by finding a creative way around this barrier to truth.  CEO’s of major corporations “dress-down” as low-level employees in their own companies to uncover the truths that would otherwise be relegated to talks around the water-cooler.

I posed the question on Twitter the other day,

“wondering what would happen if Generals pulled an ‘undercover boss’ and dressed up as civilian contractors working with the military?”

I think they might be surprised how different their military looks.

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A great observation on humanity and food at The Mission & Vision blog,

“The shortcut to humanizing any person—renowned or unknown—is to eat a meal together. You realize we’re all dependant on God to provide food for our sustenance, and the barriers of formality begin to crumble when you take turns in the buffet line, reach for a chocolate chip cookie, or wipe your face with a napkin.” – Pastor Jamie Munson, Mars Hill Church

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Here’s an excellent photo essay showing the human costs of war (h/t The Strategist)

AND…

Here’s how much Iraq and Afghanistan have cost us according to a few different sources:

The Congressional Research Service estimates the total cost of both wars to be just over $1trillion.

CostofWar.com estimates Iraq at over $700billion and Afghanistan at $255billion for a total of just under $1trillion dollars.

To give you better perspective that’s $1,000,000,000,000.00

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes say the official costs are actually quite deceiving and estimate that the total costs of Iraq alone are closer to $3trillion dollars. He talks about it here at Big Think.

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We learn from our gardens to deal with the most urgent question of the time: How much is enough?” – Wendell Berry

Last summer after attending the Puyallup Farmer’s Market nearly every weekend for 4 months I caught the bug…the vegetable gardening bug that is.  Piles of fresh, colorful, local produce began to invade not only the Schaefer family dinner menu (Jamie Oliver would be proud), but also my thinking on resilience, sustainability and health.

I soon began skipping the merchant stalls to spend my time firing flurries of questions at four nice ladies manning the gardening help table.  They seemed excited that a random 26-year old suburban hack seemed so interested in their hobby and assured me that despite my complete lack of knowledge or cute gardening hats, I too could produce something edible.  “It’s all about the soil,” they nodded in zen-like unison.  Thus, I’m planting vegetables in our backyard this Spring.

Rather than weaving some beautiful, Wendell Berry-esque narrative on what has driven me to take a crack at growing my own food, I’ll try to give you a few snapshots of random thoughts I’ve had that led me to a conviction that planting a vegetable garden is such a worthwhile endeavor to pursue.

- Growing one’s own food is a path to resilience. What do I mean by this?  Without sounding too alarmist, we have never before seen so much of our food controlled by so few companies…this is incredibly risky.  Any small variations in the industrial food system could have massive consequences, unintended or otherwise, leading to scarcity, huge price increases, disease, etc.  By growing your own food, no matter the scale, you are going “off the grid” and insulating yourself from the volatility of the globalized food market.  **For more in-depth discussion on building resilience see John Robb’s blog here.

- Potential long-term cost savings. Notice two key phrases, “potential” and “long-term.”  I’ve done enough research now to pop any idealistic bubbles that planting a vegetable garden will immediately lead to massive savings.  Seeds, equipment, water, fertilizer…these are all costs that add up and often push the savings on down the road a couple years.  However, if done successfully, there’s no reason you can’t eventually save a substantial amount on your monthly grocery bill and have fresher, more healthy food to boot.

- Buying and eating locally re-connects us with our food.  As Michael Pollan so eloquently points out in his book, “The Omnivore’s Dilemma” it is startling how disconnected we have become from something so intimate to us as our own food.  We purchase thousands of dollars of it off the grocery store shelves each year and have no idea where it comes from, or many times, what is actually in it (try pronouncing the ingredient list on any processed food and tell me if I’m wrong).

I long presumed that my ignorance equated to a moral pass on agricultural issues, but became convicted that I was voting with my wallet three times a day for a particular food system and I’d better know…really know, just what I was feeding myself and my family.

- Healthy eating for my family.  Obviously a no-brainer, but eating more vegetables is great for your health.  I spent my life avoiding them as much as possible, but was subsequently doomed when I married a woman who cooked them…and quite well at that.  It’ll be something I’ll comment on once we get into the swing of things, but my hunch is that we’ll consume a great deal more veggies as we begin producing them ourselves.  To top it off, we have two beautiful kids.  I want them to grow up in a family that eats healthy and grows its own food.

So there you have it.  Those are just a few of dozens of thoughts floating through my head when it comes to growing my own food, but hopefully this can be a good conversation starter.  If you want more good resources to check out see the following:

“Learning How to Grow Vegetables and Herbs in a Home Garden” by Jason Morgan

For those in the Pacific Northwest, The Westside Gardeners Timetable

Get Rich Slowly’s Gardening 101

What do you think?  Do you grow your own food?  Have any tips as I get started?

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“I would rather be ashes than dust!  I would rather that my spark should burn out in a brilliant blaze than it should be stifled by dry-rot.  I would rather be a superb meteor, every atom of me in magnificent glow, than a sleepy and permanent planet.  The function of man is to live, not to exist. I shall not waste my days trying to prolong them.  I shall use my time.”

- Jack London

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Margaret Feinberg posted the following on Tuesday and, though I read “The Pursuit of God” by A.W. Tozer several years ago, this quote made me want to go through it again.  As Feinberg pointed out, Tozer wrote this over 30 years ago.  Stunning how true it rings today.

Every age has its own characteristics. Right now we are in an age of religious complexity. The simplicity which is in Christ is rarely found among us. In its stead are programs, methods, organizations and a world of nervous activities which occupy time and attention but can never satisfy the longing of the heart. The shallowness of our inner experience, the hollowness of our worship, and that servile imitation of the world which marks our promotional methods all testify that we in this day, know God only imperfectly, and the peace of God scarcely at all.
If we would find God amid all the religious externals, we must first determine to find Him, and then proceed in the way of simplicity.

–A.W. Tozer (The Pursuit of God, p. 17-18)

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Jake Shimabukoro performing “Bohemian Rhapsody” on the ukulele. For those who know the song you can get to the good part at about 3:30.

HT: Marginal Revolution

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